An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side

The aim of this paper is to provide some insights on the estimation and forecasting of Ukrainian GDP from the supply side. The aggregate output is modeled on the basis of the aggregate production function estimated from official data on 33 branches of the economy. Later, the model was enhanced by allowing for some level of disaggregation. In this attempt, production functions for major sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services etc.) were estimated separately to help account for industry peculiarities. Though the theory underlying this study is straightforward, the Ukrainian context in which it was applied assures a challenge for a researcher. The major difficulties are linked to the transitional state of the economy, characterized by structural flaws, considerable changes in statistical methodology, poor quality of data, very short time series, inconsistency of some indicators, lack of stable economic relationships and a significant shadow economy.GDP, Ukraine

The Motives and Impediments to FDI in the CIS

This paper examines the motives behind foreign direct investment (FDI) in a group of four CIS countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan) based on a survey of 120 enterprises. The results indicate that non-oil multi-national enterprises (MNEs) are predominantly oriented at serving local markets. Most MNEs in the CIS operate as 'isolated players', maintaining strong links to their parent companies, while minimally cooperating with local CIS firms. The surveyed firms secure the majority of supplies from international sources. For this reason, the possibility for spillovers arising from cooperation with foreign-owned firms in the CIS is rather low at this time. The lack of efficiency-seeking investment poses further concern regarding the nature of FDI in the region. The most significant problems identified in the daily operations of the surveyed foreign firms are: the volatility of the political and economic environment, the ambiguity of the legal system and the high levels of corruption.FDI, CIS, industrial organization, investment motives

Determinants of Portfolio Flows into CIS Countries

This paper employs a standard Tobin-Markowitz framework to analyse the determinants of capital flows into the CIS countries. Using data from 1996-2006, we find that the Russian financial crisis of 1998 has had a profound impact on capital flows into the CIS (both directly and indirectly). Firstly, it introduced a structural shift in the investors' behaviour by shifting the focus from the external factors to the internal ones, e.g. domestic interest and GDP growth rates. Secondly, it also drastically changed the impact of a number of explanatory variables on capital flows into the CIS. Political risk was found to be the second most important determinant of capital flows into the CIS. Additionally, we report some strong evidence of co-movement between portfolio flows into the CIS and CEEC, coupled with strong complementarity between global stock market activity and portfolio inflows into the CIS. Interestingly, external factors tend to be of a higher significance than internal factors for the largest members (Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) of the CIS; whereas domestic variables tend to have a greater impact on the capital flows into the smaller CIS countries.portfolio investment, CIS, the Russian crisis, emerging markets

International Success of British Companies

This paper examines the international success of British companies in a matrix combining global market share and international revenues. We identify those industry segments in which British companies are most successful internationally, and also investigate whether these are attractive industries in terms of profitability and growth. We find that the industries with the largest global market shares for British companies are Mining, Casinos (and Gaming), Oil Companies (Major), Distillers & Brewers, and Water Utilities. Four of the top ten might be considered to be “sin” industries. The industries with the highest international revenues are Precious Metals, Pharmaceuticals, Industrial (Diversified), Oil Companies (Secondary), and Mining. We also find that virtually all of the largest British firms average over a 10% global market share, in the “British Winners” segment of our matrix. However, we find the second measure, the extent of internationalization, to be ambiguous. The manufacturing (product-based) firms tried to be highly internationalized, as they compete globally, but the largest British services firms (financials, retailers) tend to have low internationalization, and therefore appear to benefit from a still somewhat regulated home market. In addition, British companies have done a good job of building up global market shares in higher growth industries. We provide recommendations for managers as to how British companies with different combinations of global market share and extent of internationalisation can improve their positions. Our methodology can also be applied to analyzing companies from other nations.

Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Armenia

This study of the feasibility, costs and benefits of a free trade agreement between the EU and Armenia was conducted from July 2007 to April 2008 under contract with the European Commission. The first meeting in Brussels in September 2007 with Staff members of Directorates-General for Trade, External Relations, Economic and Financial Affairs, Internal Market and Services, Competition, Enterprise and Industry proved indispensable in our work on this report. During mission to Yerevan in October 2007 the consultations were held with a number of ministries, research institutes and business organizations. We greatly benefited from consultations with the representatives of the Ministry of Energy, Customs State Committee, Ministry of Trade and Economic Development, Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Union of Manufacturers and Businessmen (Employers) of Armenia, National Institute of Standards, Wine Producers Union, Ministry of Finance and Economy AEPLAC Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Armenian Development Agency UNDP, IMF and the World Bank. The European Commission Delegation to Armenia provided us with extensive information, consultation on key policy issues and organizational support, for chich we are very grateful. Several authors contributed to this study. David Dyker is the author of the introductory section (chapter 2) and the analysis of services sectors (chapter 7). Michael Emerson is the author of section on regional integration scenarios (chapter 3) and he also provided very valuable comments on all chapters in this study. Sveta Taran, Peter Holmes and Michael Gasiorek are the authors of chapter 4 employing the Sussex Framework to study the impact of FTA. Michael Gasiorek and Peter Holmes also provided valuable comments on the CGE modelling section. Evgeny Polyakov, Andrei Roudoi as well as Gevorg Torosyan contributed to the chapter on the institutional and regulatory harmonization (chapter 5). The team from the Global Insight including Andre Jungmittag, Vicki Korchagin, Evgeny Polyakov and Andrei Roudoi supervised the implementation of the survey and completed the analysis of the survey results (chapter 6). Also the same team from Global Insight contributed chapter 10 on sensitive sectors. The implementation of the survey of NTBs was conducted by AVAG Solutions under the supervision of Vardan Baghdasaryan and Melik Gasparyan. The analysis of FDI flows and their likely trends following an FTA was prepared by Malgorzata Jakubiak, while the estimation of the potential FDI flows was completed by Alina Kudina (section 8.4). The CGE analysis (chapter 9) was prepared by Maryla Maliszewska, who also acted as the project manager and the editor of the study. Finally, conclusions are a collective work of all the authors. Sierz Naurodski and Elena Kozarzewska provided an excellent administrative support. I would like to take his opportunity to thank them all for their cooperation, valuable contributions and comments.European Neighborhood Policy, free trade agreement, institutional harmonization, EU, Armenia

Economic Feasibility, General Economic Impact and Implications of a Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and Georgia

This study of the feasibility, costs and benefits of a free trade agreement between the EU and Georgia was conducted from July 2007 to April 2008 under contrach with the European Commission. The first meeting in Brussels in September 2007 with staff members of Directorates-General for Trade, External Relations, Economic and Financial Affairs, Internal Market and Services, Competition, Enterprise and Industry proved indispensable in our work on this report. During mission to Tbilisi in October 2007 the consultations were held with a number of ministries, research institutes and business organizations. We greatly benefited from consultations with the Ministry of Economic Development, Standardization Office, UN Team Leader for Economic Development, State Minister for Reforms Coordination, Ministry of Energy, Office of Deputy State Minister for European and Euro Atlantic Integration, American Chamber of Commerce, Georgian Chamber of Commerce, IMF, World Bank, EBRD, GEPLAC – Georgian European Policy Legal Advice Centre, Wine Producers Association, Federation of Georgian Businessman. The European Commission Delegation to Georgia provided us with extensive information, consultation on key policy issues and organizational support, for which we are very grateful. Several authors contributed to this study. David Dyker is the author of the introductory section (chapter 2) and the analysis of services sectors (chapter 7). Michael Emerson is the author of section on regional integration scenarios (charter 3) and he also provided very valuable comments on all chapters in this study. Sveta Taran, Peter Holmes and Michael Gasiorek are the authors of chapter 4 employing the Sussex Framework to study the impact of a free trade agreement. Michael Gasiorek and Peter Holmes also provided valuable comments on the CGE modelling section. Evgeny Polyakov, Andrei Roudoi as well as Nino Chokheli and Giorgi Pertaia contributed to the chapter on the institutional and regulatory harmonization (chapter 5). The team from the Global Insight including Andre Jungmittag, Vicki Korchagin, Evgeny Polyakov and Andrei Roudoi supervised the implementation of the survey and completed the analysis of the survey results (chapter 6). Also the same team from Global Insight contributed chapter 10 on sensitive sectors. The implementation of the survey of NTBs was conducted by CASE-Transcaucasus under the supervision of Tamaz Asatiani. The analysis of FDI flows and their likely trends following an FTA was prepared by Malgorzata Jakubiak, while the estimation of the potential FDI flows was conducted by Alina Kudina (section 8.4). The CGE analysis (chapter 9) was written by Maryla Maliszewska, who also acted as the project manager and the editor of the study. Finally, conclusions are a collective work of all the authors. Sierz Naurodski and Elena Kozarzewska provided an excellent administrative support. I would like to take this opportunity to thank them all for their cooperation, valuable contributions and comments.European Neighborhood Policy, free trade agreement, institutional harmonization, EU, Georgia.

Policy and political aspects of foreign direct investment

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

De-industrialisation, comparative economic performance and FDI inflows in emerging economies

We address calls to incorporate comparative political economy considerations into IB scholarship. In particular, we conceptualise and test empirically the hitherto unexplored relationship between de-industrialisation and relative performance of groups of countries, and FDI inflows in emerging economies. Using a panel dataset over the period 1996–2004 and employing conceptual and methodological innovations (not least the use of comparative independent variables), we find support for the ideas that relative de-industrialisation of developed economies will increase FDI inflows into emerging economies, while the relative under-performance of developed countries will reduce it. We also find that divergence in business cycles-de-coupling between the two groups of countries fosters FDI inflows in emerging economies. These help explain and predict recent changes in the global business landscape and inform public policy and managerial practice

Conditions for Positive Spillovers for FDI

This paper examines the motives behind foreign direct investments located in a group of four Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries (Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan) based on a survey of 120 enterprises. The results indicate that non-oil MNEs are predominantly oriented towards local markets. On average, MNEs in these four countries operate as "isolated players", weakly cooperating with local firms but strongly linked to their parent companies. The surveyed firms procure a low share of their supplies locally. For this reason, the possibility for spillovers arising from co-operation with foreign-owned firms in the CIS is rather low. There is a lack of efficiency-seeking investment that poses further concerns about the nature of FDI in the region. The most important problems for the surveyed foreign firms are the volatility of the political and economic environment, ambiguities in the legal system, and corruption